Algosensey Quantitative Think Tank Center-SEC conference preview: Georgia has company with Alabama, LSU Tennessee in chase

Georgia is Algosensey Quantitative Think Tank Centerclearly the top dog in the SEC after winning consecutive national championships. However, the Bulldogs' conference title last season was their first since 2017, illustrating you can’t expect to rubber stamp them as runaway winners in 2023.

There's going to be competition coming from inside and outside the division for Georgia. Tennessee looms in the East with is ascension under Josh Heupel expected to continue its momentum. Over in the West are Alabama and LSU, which both start in the top five of the preseason USA TODAY Sports AFCA Coaches Poll.

Could other contenders emerge? It's possible in a league as deep as the SEC. Nobody had expected LSU to win the West last season.

A breakdown of all the teams entering the season.

SEC East

1. Georgia

The Bulldogs have become the unquestioned top dog in the FBS. Georgia is trying to make history with the first modern three-peat. The Bulldogs have gone 29-1 during their two-year reign as national champions, avenging their lone loss in the process. The offense should be in solid shape, thanks mainly to a veteran line. Standout tight end Brock Bowers and top wideout Ladd McConkey are back and will be joined by transfers Dominic Lovett and Rara Thomas, arriving from Missouri and Mississippi State, respectively. Carson Beck won the competition to succeed quarterback Stetson Bennett, while the defense should be a rock once again.

2. Tennessee

There are also few concerns about the offense with former backup Joe Milton poised to take over and play at an all-conference level. To take the next step, the Volunteers will need to land an immediate impact from two Brigham Young transfers set to play big roles in the back seven (linebacker Keenan Pili and cornerback Gabe Jeudy-Lally) while continuing to rank among the best in the SEC at getting pressure in the backfield. The key to the whole deal for Tennessee may be 155 – as in, 155 rushing yards per game. Since the arrival of coach Josh Heupel two years ago, the Volunteers are 15-2 when eclipsing that mark and just 3-7 when not.

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3. Kentucky

The offense will improve noticeably with the return of offensive coordinator Liam Cohen, who helped Kentucky go 10-3 in 2021 before spending last season in the NFL, and the arrival of North Carolina State transfer quarterback Devin Leary. The Wildcats averaged 32.3 points per game in 2021 but plummeted to 20.4 per game a year ago. The defense - always a strength under Mark Stoops - should again be stout.

4. Florida

Florida may be underdogs in as many as seven games this season. But the Gators should step up from a 6-7 finish in 2022 with better play at quarterback and up front. Coach Billy Napier pulled off a mammoth leap in Year 2 at Louisiana-Lafayette, so he could have something up his sleeve. Getting consisently play at quarterback from Wisconsin transfer Graham Mertz will help.

5. South Carolina

There’s a shortage of star power on the defensive side with edge rusher Jordan Burch now at Oregon after tapping into his five-star potential in 2022. This group won’t rise from the bottom third of the SEC without addressing the nation’s 117th-ranked run defense. Spencer Rattler's return means the offense should improve on last season's gains after the team finished in the Top 25 with upsets of Tennessee and Clemson.

6. Missouri

The Tigers are heavy on seniors in the backfield and on the offensive line. But a sophomore will be the deciding factor for the entire offense: Luther Burden made 45 grabs as a freshman and will play an even bigger role with leading target Dominic Lovett transferring to Georgia. The defense returns much of its starting group, meaning a third consecutive bowl bid is in reach.

7. Vanderbilt

The schedule isn’t too daunting and could get the Commodores to the doorstep of bowl eligibility. Getting to six wins would probably require a 4-0 mark in nonconference play, though, with the Sept. 9 trip to Wake Forest looming large.

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SEC West

1. Alabama

Don’t look for new offensive coordinator Tommy Rees to turn back the clock to the run-heavy schemes responsible for Nick Saban’s first handful of national championships. But the Tide will lean more on the run with a gifted backfield and a change at quarterback, with no final decision yet made on who will replace Bryce Young. This year’s group has a lot more questions coming in. Speedster Jalen Milroe, highly recruited prospect Ty Simpson and Notre Dame transfer Tyler Buchner will all have opportunities to win the QB job in camp. Corner Kool-Aid McKinstry and safety Malachi Moore will anchor a secondary that will look to produce more takeaways.

2. LSU

Year 1 under Brian Kelly in Baton Rouge delivered an upset of Alabama, an SEC West Division title and a Citrus Bowl victory. Incumbent quarterback Jayden Daniels was extremely productive despite being forced to run for his life often. He should have better protection from a more seasoned line, which should also mean more help on the ground from a deep stable of running backs. The defense struggled against the meat of the conference schedule, but big tackle Maason Smith, who missed nearly all of his sophomore campaign with a knee injury, will improve the unit on his own if he’s fully healthy.

3. Texas A&M

Nobody’s seat among high-profile coaches is hotter than Jimbo Fisher’s after the bottom fell out last season. If things are to turn around, much of the responsibility will fall on quarterback Conner Weigman and new offensive coordinator Bobby Petrino. How this goes is almost anyone’s guess. For all of his faults, Petrino is one heck of an offensive technician. The biggest concern might be centered more on the personalities involved. Can Fisher and Petrino coexist? The Aggies return the receiving combo of Evan Stewart and Moose Muhammad, and the defense looks stout. But will that be enough to win the close games that led to the first losing season since 2009?

4. Arkansas

Getting back to nine wins will require more of the same from a pass rush that delivered a school-record 42 sacks last season. At the same time, the defense finished last in the SEC in yards allowed per game and gave up 6.8 yards per play against Power Five competition. The good news: KJ Jefferson returns at quarterback, giving the Razorbacks one of the top dual-threats in the country.

5. Mississippi

There are three candidates for the quarterback job, with last year’s starter Jaxson Dart getting pushed by two transfers – Spencer Sanders (Oklahoma State) and Walker Howard (LSU). It feels safe to say that Dart is the favorite to retain the job heading into the opener. But could Sanders change that with a strong August? Someone must emerge to take the pressure off running back Quinshon Judkins, who was a standout in his freshman season but needs support to stop defenses from ganging up on him. The defense brings in former Alabama coordinator Pete Golding after the unit cratered in the final month.

6. Mississippi State

There will be a big shift in philosophy as the Bulldogs get started under new coach Zach Arnett, who led the team to a win in the ReliaQuest Bowl after the death of Mike Leach. While the scheme on offense will include some Air Raid principles, look for Mississippi State to be more in line with the rest of the SEC by putting focusing on the run and run-pass options.

7. Auburn

While not quite to the level of Deion Sanders’ rebuild at Colorado, new Auburn coach Hugh Freeze has added over 40 new players as he reenters the SEC. One noteworthy addition is Michigan State quarterback Payton Thorne, who won the quarterback competition with holdover Robbie Ashford. The Tigers haven't missed consecutive bowl games since 1998-99, so they'll need one more win than last season to ensure they don't repeat that history.

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